We spend a considerable amount of moment trying to figure out where value lies in the market. A lot of final years’ favorite high flyers have come back down to soil. Some of them are starting to resemble bank stocks. However, I have read nothing of Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) dabbling in sub-prime mortgages or CDO’s. Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (NASDAQ: ISRG) has not reported any not good news — and both are down but showing signs of some upside again.

Regardless, the price on any given day is a myth, a story, speculation based on a few truths and many unknowns. There is a lot of huffing and puffing about current and future valuations.

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) one of our most inventive, progressive and dynamically promoted companies is down by 35% in one month. Apple euphoria pushed it too high in December, and I think it could be argued that it has become a value play now. My colleague Georges Yared is on record forecasting a one-year price for AAPL shares of $300…10.5 to go. Beltway Greg, one of our frequent AAPL enthusiasts has thrown out a price target of $260, and I am on record with a $225 as the top end. Apple closed at $145.46 on Friday.

What is the truth? There is none, until we are looking back at facts instead of forward with best guesses. As of nowadays Apple might even be too high. Hey George, what do you think now?

Don’t even get me started on Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) My final post on the subject was

Amazon is not worth a penny by $60 - and I think even less! It closed Friday at $73.50 with a P/E around 66. So in case the math is tough for you, AMZN has to increase its net earnings by 100% to achieve a P/E of 33 twelve months out and would thereupon be 22% higher than Apple is nowadays — go figure. There have been times that AMZN was on sale but for most of it’s existence I have thought it was by priced and I do nowadays as well. As best as I have been able to memorize AMZN’s price is greatly affected by the limited number of shares: Who owns Amazon.com - really?

January and so far February has been a hardy month in the stock market but I have positioned for the lengthy term with many value propositions. In the short run I have been the “price is right” winner on a few things like GOOG and ISRG and I don’t share many peoples pessimism for the stock market. We have been net buyers in January and February looks to be the same. Who knows, I might even get crazy and buy some Amazon some day.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the design and research principal for an architecture & planning firm. To find potential opportunities and verify my track record read Chasing Value or Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of ISRG.

Original post by Sheldon Liber

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