Are stocks cheap right now?
Large-company stock prices in have tumbled 13% in three months. Small-company stocks have done worse. The ratio of share prices to company earnings (”P/E”) is the lowest it has been in more than a decade. But is it low ample to produce the broad market cheap?
That depends on how you degree. by the past 135 years, stocks have carried an average P/E of 15.1, based on trailing 12-month earnings. (I’m using input provided on the websites of Yale economist Robert Schiller and Standard & Poor’s.) As of the shut of trading Thursday, the S&P 500 index, which more or less tracks the stock performance of America’s 500 largest companies, had a P/E ratio of 16.6.
Remove special charges for things like naughty loan write-downs from the past year’s earnings, and the aftermath is a more alluring P/E of 14.9. Whether that’s a fairer number or not is a matter of opinion. But whether we were able to apply the same tactic to 135 years of corporate accounting, we’d surely end up with a lower historical P/E, too. That suggests again that stocks are pricier than average, but not worrisomely so.
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Original post by Jack Hough
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